There's been quite a bit of commenting on this blog lately about my assertion that some parts of the market are picking up, notably the moderate range of the second home market. I've also been seeing more weakness in the traditionally "primary" home market. Its always hard to define those terms, though. Also, there has been a lot of anecdotal commenting among Realtors here that brokers in the western part of Sullivan seem to be busier than brokers in the central and eastern parts of the county. GIve me an unanswered question, and its like holding out a piece of raw steak for a dog. Woof!
So I decided to take a swipe at it. Yes, single family sales are down about 30% year over year for the county as a whole Then I divided the sales into two groups — eastern and western. In the eastern township group I included Neversink, Fallsburg, Thompson, Liberty, Mamakating and Forestburgh. The western township group included Rockland, Fremont, Callicoon, Delaware, Bethel, Cochecton, Tusten, Highland and Lumberland. Arguably I made some arbitrary calls like putting Rockland in "west" and Forestburgh in "east" (but shifting them into the other group doesn't notably change the data.) The time period I used for comparison was year-to-date sales for 2007 and 2008 from Jan. 1 through June 23.
What I found is that the sales drop off has been somewhat greater in the eastern townships (-32%) than in the western townships (-28%), but the western townships — in terms of number of sales year over year — isn't dramatically outperforming the east. On the price front, though, the median sales price drop has been larger (-16%) in the east compared to -10% in the west. (If you're a regular reader of my commentaries, you know that I prefer to look at the median rather than the average for price trends, although the larger 19% drop in the average in the western townships is a very interesting statistic worthy of investigation.)
An interesting statistic though, is prices overall east versus west/ The median sales price in the western townships is 21% higher than in the eastern townships, but the average sales price in the west is a substantial 36% higher than in the east. The gap between the median and average sales price in the west is also much wider than in the east. In the western townships, the average sales price is 29% above the median, while in the eastern townships the average is only 11.6% higher.
|Single Family Sales||Avg. Sales Price||Median Sales Price|
|East County Townships|
|2007||134||$ 199,664||$ 171,000|
|2008||92||$ 166,648||$ 144,000|
|West County Townships|
|2007||103||$ 278,366||$ 195,358|
|2008||74||$ 226,856||$ 175,000|
2007 and 2008 Data Jan. 1 through June 23 (YTD)