For the past month or so, I’ve been reporting on the sharp rise in inventory of single family homes available for sale in Sullivan County. An increase in inventory (without a related rise in sales) is one indicator of a shift to a buyer’s market. At the beginning of June, the inventory of 1,100 houses for sale here is 26% above June, 2005. Corzen, a research firm in NYC, has been tracking inventory nationwide, and just issued its May 2006 Real Estate Survey showing that nationally the average increase in inventory was 60% between May ’05 and May ’06 — with as much as a 400% increase in some counties!
Corzen also tracked median and average asking prices by county, and listed the 50 counties showing the greatest decreases and increases. Only 4 counties in the entire northeast made that list – one each in New Hamsphire, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. The biggest hits were in Florida and California, with 13 counties each on the list. (I own a condo in Florida, one of the big inventoy hike states, that
I’m trying to sell, and I can tell you its pretty bad down there in the
No New York or New Jersey County made the "Greatest Decrease in Asking Price" list, but 4 New York counties (Bronx, Oneida, Montgomery and Livingston) made the list of "Greatest Percentage Increase in Asking Prices."
Note that this is asking price data, not actual sales prices on closed sales, and is best viewed as a relative indicator of confidence. On any number of recently reported vectors, though, New York’s real estate markets seem to be performing relatively well. While dips may be reported, on many measures they’re much milder than in other areas.
Another good article out today — that will make you feel pretty good about being a NY homeowner rather than a San Diego or Florida homeowner — is "How To Profit From A Cooling Real Estate Market" on Yahoo!Finance. One factor that may portend a soft landing here (and a harder landing in other markets) is the absence of real estate speculation, particularly in the pre-sale condo market that fueled a lot of the Florida boom.